@ISIDEWITHPitanjaVanjska politikaprije 6 godina

Hoće li SAD ići u rat s Iranom?

U lipnju 2019. napetosti između SAD-a i Irana eskalirale su nakon što je iranski revolucionarni stražar u Omanskom zaljevu oborio američki nadzorni trn. SAD su tvrdile da je riječ o "neisprovociranom napadu" i da je trut letio u međunarodnom zračnom prostoru. 2 tjedna ranije, Trumpova administracija okrivila je Iran za napade na dva naftna tankera koji su bombardirani u Omanskom zaljevu. Iran je porekao bilo kakvu umiješanost. Početkom lipnja Iran je priopćio kako će prekinuti ograničenje zaliha urana prema sporazumu o nuklearnoj energiji u Iranu 2015. godine. Prema dogovoru, Iranu je bilo dopušteno zadržati maksimalno 660 funti urana obogaćenog na 3,67%. Analitičari predviđaju da će Iran, ako se obogati do 20% ili više, biti u stanju razviti nuklearno oružje.

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Stručnjaci

Ovi aktivni korisnici stekli su napredno znanje o terminologiji, povijesti i pravnim implikacijama u vezi s temom Iran

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Pregled Odgovora

Stope odgovora 1.2k Franklin glasača.

11%
Da
89%
Nema
6%
Da
74%
Nema
5%
Da, ali samo ako razviju nuklearno oružje
14%
Ne, SAD bi trebale potaknuti Iran da se razoruža diplomatskim putem
0%
Da, ali samo s raketnim napadima

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 @ISIDEWITH podneseno…2 tjedna2W

Trump Pivots: "Pease Deal With Iran Now!"

Trump proposes a "Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement" with Iran, expressing preference for diplomacy over military action and calling for immediate negotiations.Despite advocating for diplomacy, Trump simultaneously issued an executive order reinstating his "maximum pressure" sanctions policy from his first administration.The sanctions campaign aims to completely halt Iran's oil exports, particularly focusing on exports to China, which currently receives about 1.7 million barrels per day.Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded by calling the maximum pressure strategy a "failed experience" while indicating openness to discussions about their nuclear program.The executive order includes reviewing and potentially rescinding existing sanctions waivers, including those related to the Chabahar port project operated by India.Iranian oil exports had previously dropped from 3 million barrels per day in 2018 to 420,000 barrels per day in December 2019 under Trump's first-term sanctions.Iran currently maintains a "shadow fleet" of oil tankers operating outside Western banking and insurance services to circumvent US restrictions.Oil markets showed limited reaction to Trump's announcement, with Brent crude dropping 1% as traders doubt the ability to completely block Iranian exports.Analysts suggest Iran could become a negotiating tool in US-China trade discussions, with China potentially willing to reduce Iranian oil imports as it modernizes its refining sector.Iranian analysts indicate Tehran would likely reject any agreement attempting to restrict their ballistic missile program, which they consider their primary deterrent.